Danas u Večernjem vrlo zanimljiv članak Dragana Bagića u kojem argumentira da su predizborna (i izlazna) istraživanja javnog mnijenja vrlo korisna te da u Hrvatakoj značajno napreduju u kvaliteti:
Jučer pak The New Yorker objavljuje vrlo zanimljiv članak profesorice američke povijesti na Harvardu Jill Lepore (pogledajte joj profil na TNY) Politics and the New Machine — What the turn from polls to data science means for democracy.
U ovom oglednom primjerku vrhunskog svjetskog žurnalizma imamo prezentiran balansirani pogled, primjerice ovo je jedan od ključnih paragrafa:
“There are all kinds of problems with public-opinion research, as done by surveys,” Lupia admits. “But a lot of the alternatives are worse. A lot of what we’d have would be self-serving stories about what’s good for people. ‘When given a clear choice between eggs and bananas, ninety-eight per cent of the people prefer one or the other.’ Prior to the polls, I can say that, and you have no check on me. But if there’s a poll you have a check.”
That’s a good point, too, except that there isn’t much of a check on political scientists who don’t reveal their methods because they’ve sold their algorithms to startups for millions of dollars. Whether or not they’re making money, people who predict elections want to be right, and they believe, as fiercely as Lupia does, that they are engaged in a public good. I asked Doug Rivers what role the measurement of public opinion plays in a democracy. He said, “The cynical answer is ‘Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down.’ ” (He was quoting a Tom Lehrer song.) But Rivers isn’t cynical. He believes that polling “improves the quality of representation.” I asked him to give me an example. He said, “You couldn’t have had the change in gay marriage without the polling data.” Everyone cares where the rockets come down.
Jasno, forte je autoričin prikaz povijesti istraživanja javnog mnijenja, svakako pogledajte!
Ukupno, čini se da je stav autorice prilično kritičan prema istraživanjima javnog mnijenja. Kontroverza sa sučeljavanjem republikanskih kandidata koje su zajedno radili Fox News i Facebook jasno korespondira s nekim našim situacijama.
Ovo je kontroverzna tema koja će kao takva biti sve više prepoznata i u Hrvatsakoj. To vidimo i po tome preznetaciji ovog članka u TNY. Pogledajte kako je označen tab u browseru kad ga otvorite: Are Polls Ruining Democracy? što nema veze s naslovom članka. Skoro sigurno je to bio naziv prve verije članka koji je zaostao u ‘tagu’ (ovo se rijetko viđa).
Ovo je kraj teksta:
“No one tells me what to say,” Trump had said in August. By September, on the defensive about Fiorina, he insisted—he knew—that he had the will of the people behind him. “If you look at the polls,” he said, “a lot of people like the way I talk.”
Donald Trump is a creature of the polls. He is his numbers. But he is only a sign of the times. Turning the press into pollsters has made American political culture Trumpian: frantic, volatile, shortsighted, sales-driven, and anti-democratic.
He kept his lead nearly till the end of October. “Do we love these polls?” he called out to a crowd in Iowa. “Somebody said, ‘You love polls.’ I said that’s only because I’ve been winning every single one of them. Right? Right? Every single poll.” Two days later, when he lost his lead in Iowa to Ben Carson, he’d grown doubtful: “I honestly think those polls are wrong.” By the week of the third G.O.P. debate, he’d fallen behind in a national CBS/NYT poll. “The thing with these polls, they’re all so different,” Trump said, mournfully. “It’s not very scientific.”
Zanima me vaše mišljenje. Što mislite, da li predizborna istraživanja javnog mnijenja više pomažu ili više odmažu demokraciji?